The blog that fits in a coat pocket
Twenty entries across the last few years — just enough to know what happened, why it matters, and where I stand.
Christmas Day: Quiet Markets, Loud Positioning
With US cash markets closed, futures and global risk stayed subdued as desks focused on year-end positioning.
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Christmas Eve Liquidity Evaporates
A half-day session kept markets pinned as dealer gamma and thin books muted any move.
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Breadth Frays Under a Calm Tape
Index calm masked thinning breadth and volatility suppression driven by systematic flows.
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Year-End Rotation Refuses to Fade
Dollar slippage and persistent bids in energy and defense show the rotation is intact even in holiday liquidity.
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Holiday Liquidity, Rotation Still Breathing
Thin holiday liquidity kept the tape calm while soft dollar tones and steady energy flows showed rotation hadn’t stalled.
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Fiscal Relief, Real Assets Bid
Fiscal headlines eased stress while the dollar stayed firm and flows kept favoring real assets over growth.
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Expiry Vol Spike, Defense Holds
An expiry-driven volatility spike met dollar strength and pushed flows back into defense and energy.
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Rebalancing Keeps a Quiet Bid
Rebalancing kept risk flat while the dollar cooled and commodities held a quiet bid.
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BoJ Chatter Cools the Dollar
BoJ tightening chatter cooled dollar pressure while tight liquidity and energy/commodities rotation resumed.
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Options Tension Sparks Another Rotation Wave
Volatility tension around options positioning met a dollar rally and an energy bid, fueling another round of rotation.
read →Soft Retail Data Fuels Real-Asset Rotation
A soft retail print eased stress, weakened the dollar, and pushed more flow into energy and real assets.
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Geopolitics Rekindles the Energy Bid
Fresh geopolitical risk lifted oil, firmed the dollar on haven flows, and kept liquidity thin.
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Post-Fed Calm, Rotation Intact
Calmer tape let dollar drift down while energy and defense flows kept the rotation alive.
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Fed Hold Extends the Rotation
A steady Fed cooled stress, eased the dollar, and sent commodities higher as the rotation widened.
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Pre-Fed Jitters Tighten Liquidity
Liquidity stress crept in ahead of the Fed; the dollar stayed bid while energy and defense drew steady rotation flows.
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CPI Cools the Dollar
A softer CPI eased dollar pressure, sparked a rotation squeeze, and gave cyclicals a clean afternoon bid.
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Pre-CPI Standoff
Markets idled ahead of CPI; liquidity stayed steady while a strong dollar and energy bid signaled cautious rotation.
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Dollar Soft, Energy Bid
Sideways equities hid a steady energy bid and a softer dollar that kept rotation humming.
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Payroll Relief Keeps Rotation in Motion
Cooler payrolls slipped the dollar and kept energy as the only clean December bid.
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Macro Back in Control as Rotation Widens
AI-heavy equities paused while haven dollar strength, energy bids, and defense flows signaled that macro is steering early December.
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December Rotation Signals a Risk Reset
Capital left crowded tech for real assets as oil jumped, the dollar slipped, and long-end yields eased.
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Energy Firms as Dollar Softens
Supply-side oil pop, a softer USD, and early sector rotation put energy in the driver’s seat.
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Markets Brace Ahead of Jobs Print
Oil dips on inventories while markets pause for NFP; dollar firms on flow-driven bids.
read →Markets Hold Their Nerve Ahead of 2026
Markets stayed flat into year-end as traders waited for hard data, not sentiment.
read →ECB Delivers First Cut of the Cycle
Frankfurt trimmed rates by 25 bps even as it acknowledged inflation remains above target.
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BOJ Ends Negative Rates and Retires Yield Cap
Japan lifted rates to 0–0.1% and scrapped explicit yield-curve control after a generation of easing.
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Spot Bitcoin ETFs Launch in the US
The SEC approved 11 spot bitcoin ETFs, pulling crypto into mainstream wrappers.
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October CPI Cooldown Eases Yield Pressure
Inflation slowed more than expected, knocking bond yields lower and lifting stocks.
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US 10-Year Yield Briefly Tops 5%
A milestone move in long Treasuries flashed the cost of higher-for-longer policy and deficits.
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Arm Returns to Markets With a Pop
The biggest US IPO of 2023 priced at the top and jumped on debut, testing risk appetite.
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Fitch Cuts US Rating to AA+
A post-debt ceiling downgrade revived debates on US creditworthiness and Treasury supply.
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Fed Lifts to 5.25–5.50% in July
Another 25 bps kept policy at a 22-year high while officials kept options open.
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UBS Agrees to Buy Credit Suisse in Emergency Deal
Swiss authorities pushed UBS to take over Credit Suisse for CHF 3B with massive liquidity backstops.
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US Regulators Seize Silicon Valley Bank
A classic bank run toppled Silicon Valley Bank; regulators stepped in after a single brutal day of withdrawals.
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Fed Downshifts to 50 bps but Stays Hawkish
A smaller hike came with a higher terminal dot, signaling tightening wasn't done.
read →Powell Signals Slower Hikes at Brookings
A speech hinting at smaller moves sparked a risk rally before year-end.
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UK Gilts Buckle After Mini-Budget Shock
Unfunded tax cuts sent gilt yields soaring, forcing the market to test the Bank of England.
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Fed Jumps to 75 bps After Hot CPI
A surprise 75 bps hike signaled the Fed's urgency after May inflation hit a 40-year high.
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Fed Delivers 50 bps and Sets QT Clock
A half-point hike and a balance-sheet runoff plan marked the Fed's biggest move since 2000.
read →Fed Begins Rate Liftoff With 25 bps
The Fed raised rates for the first time since 2018 and mapped out six more moves for 2022.
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War in Ukraine Jolts Energy and Equities
Russia's invasion sent oil above $100, sank European equities, and sparked a rush for safety.
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US Inflation Prints 6.2%, Highest Since 1990
October CPI surprised to the upside, jolting rate expectations and the dollar.
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Energy Crunch Lifts Brent Toward $86
Tight supply and a global gas squeeze pushed oil to multi-year highs ahead of winter.
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Archegos Margin Unwind Hits Prime Brokers
A family office blow-up triggered forced block trades and multibillion-dollar losses for lenders.
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