Fiscal Relief, Real Assets Bid

What Happened

• A stopgap fiscal deal removed shutdown risk; credit tightened modestly and equities breathed.
• The dollar stayed firm despite calmer vibes, holding EUR and EM in check.
• Flows still favored energy, infrastructure, and utilities—real assets beat high-multiple growth for another session.

What It Means

• Removing political tail risk lowers stress but doesn’t change the rate backdrop; USD resilience signals that carry remains king.
• Investors are treating relief as a chance to add to real assets, not to reload tech.
• Credit’s steady tone shows no systemic worry, giving rotation room to run.

What I Think

• Fiscal relief is a green light for the existing trade, not a catalyst for a new one.
• Unless the dollar finally cracks, growth multiples stay capped and value keeps absorbing flows.
• I’m keeping exposures in cash-flow sectors and letting tech weights drift lower into year-end.

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Market Terms

• Shutdown Risk — The threat of government funding lapses that can rattle credit markets.
• Carry — Income earned from holding a higher-yielding asset or currency.
• Tail Risk Relief — Removing a low-probability but high-impact threat, often sparking a small risk rally.