Year-End Rotation Refuses to Fade

What Happened

• Another low-volume session kept indices range-bound; dealers noted persistent demand for energy and defense ETFs.
• The dollar slipped further as global data surprised softer; DXY now sits near month-to-date lows.
• Long-end yields were steady, allowing value to outperform while mega-cap tech drifted.

What It Means

• Rotation has survived every event this month; even in holiday liquidity, flows keep favoring cash flow over duration.
• Dollar slippage eases global funding pressure and keeps the commodity complex supported.
• With volatility suppressed, investors are using small windows to rebalance toward real assets before year-end marks.

What I Think

• The message is simple: the market still wants energy, defense, and infrastructure more than expensive growth.
• Unless USD reverses sharply, this setup carries into January positioning.
• I’m leaving the book light but pointed—real assets as ballast, tech as optionality via smaller sizing.

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Market Terms

• Range-Bound — Trading within a tight band without decisive direction.
• Month-to-Date Lows — A short-term reference point that matters for systematic dollar flows.
• Ballast — Holdings used to stabilize a portfolio during volatility.