Holiday Liquidity, Rotation Still Breathing

What Happened

• Volumes collapsed into the holiday week; indices drifted with barely any intraday range.
• The dollar stayed soft, giving EM FX another small lift and easing metals.
• Energy and industrials held their quiet bid; tech was flat-to-down as funds avoided adding risk.

What It Means

• Calm tape doesn’t mean rotation is over—flow data still show money moving toward cash flow and away from duration.
• A soft dollar removes headwinds for commodities, keeping the energy hedge attractive even in light liquidity.
• With positioning light, any data shock would move markets quickly; for now, the path of least resistance is drift with a value tilt.

What I Think

• Holiday liquidity masks intent, but the same themes persist: favor real assets, fade crowded growth.
• Unless USD snaps back, commodities keep an upward bias and tech remains the funding leg.
• I’m keeping risk small but pointed—energy/defense over mega-cap tech—until real liquidity returns.

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Market Terms

• Light Tape — Trading sessions with minimal volume and range.
• Funding Leg — The position sold to finance another trade, often revisited when liquidity is thin.
• Value Tilt — A portfolio bias toward cheaper, cash-generating equities.