November 11, 2021

US Inflation Prints 6.2%, Highest Since 1990

InflationMacro

What Happened

The October CPI report, released November 10, showed headline inflation at 6.2% year over year and core at 4.6%, both above forecasts. Bond yields jumped, the dollar strengthened, and rate futures pulled forward expectations for Fed hikes in 2022.

What It Means

Inflation was no longer a narrow supply story; broad categories from shelter to food accelerated. The data intensified pressure on the Fed to taper asset purchases faster and consider earlier liftoff, while eroding real wage gains.

What I Think

This print broke the patience narrative. I expected the Fed to accelerate tapering, and investors to rethink duration exposure. The market’s reaction — a stronger dollar and flatter curve — captured a new regime of stickier inflation risk.

Market Terms

6.2% headline shock – Inflation at a three-decade high.
Dollar bid – Greenback strengthening on hawkish repricing.
Accelerated taper risk – Pressure on the Fed to speed asset-purchase runoff.
Earlier liftoff pricing – Futures pulling 2022 hikes forward.